Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B6 0xb631…8a87 other 558 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 231d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,192 (-3%) realized −$2,200 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate39%213W / 334L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$390
7 days−$413
14 days−$394
30 days−$347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$2,063
politics 8% −$119
world 5% −$78
economics 3% +$4
crypto 1% +$54
finance 1% −$116
sports 0% +$15
tech 0% −$16
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -20.4% -28.0% 21% 14% -20.6%
≤30d 73 -23.7% -31.0% 29% 19% -14.5%
≤90d 123 -23.0% -30.4% 32% 22% -15.4%
all 547 -10.4% -19.0% 39% 19% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 19% -12.8%
10% -26.7% 12% -21.2%
15% -33.8% 9% -28.8%
20% -40.3% 7% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$19 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$2,200
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses213 / 334
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)547 / 558
History coverage232d ⚠
Avg bet$116
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 547 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 51¢ 55¢ $155 $167 +$12 (+8%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 30¢ 31¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $533 −$27 -5%
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $716 −$169 -24%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -92%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $431 −$11 -3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $518 −$143 -28%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 16 $85 −$13 -15%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 16 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $265 −$18 -7%
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 15 $49 −$2 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $162 −$20 -12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $17 −$2 -9%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +158%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$2 +49%
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -30%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -56%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $185 +$2 +1%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -19%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by September 30, 2026? Jun 11 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by October 31, 2026? Jun 10 $168 −$4 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $120 −$10 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3 $0 -5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$5 +434%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +128%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by November 30, 2026? Jun 09 $278 +$30 +11%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $143 −$2 -2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $605 −$11 -2%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 4, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will any team get mega creeps at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 08 $36 −$9 -26%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $2 +$1 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $4 1h
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 54¢ $11 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 8h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $0 9h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $13 9h
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 54¢ $13 9h
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 54¢ $21 9h
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 54¢ $11 10h
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 10h
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $15 10h
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 52¢ $10 10h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 11h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 11h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 11h
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 11h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 11h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 11h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 11h
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 52¢ $31 11h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 11h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 11h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $16 11h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $108 11h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 11h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $98 11h
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 52¢ $62 12h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 12h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 12h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 12h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.73 · official $195.73 (match) · 3401 history records