Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B6 0xb629…14db world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,841 (+25%) realized +$1,841 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%19W / 31L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$626
7 days−$103
14 days+$349
30 days+$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$2,121
crypto 24% −$59
sports 10% +$385
other 4% −$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +17.6% +6.4% 29% 29% -13.8%
≤30d 25 +8.8% -1.6% 32% 32% -4.7%
≤90d 34 +3.4% -6.5% 32% 32% -7.1%
all 50 +20.4% +8.9% 38% 36% +17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 36% +17.7%
10% -1.5% 34% +6.4%
15% -11.0% 26% -3.8%
20% -19.7% 24% -13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$106 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$1,841
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses19 / 31
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage136d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 $0 -0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $153 +$382 +249%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$403 +785%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$10 -19%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$69 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$76 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $309 +$88 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $67 −$63 -95%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $600 −$344 -57%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $521 −$399 -77%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $400 +$1,051 +263%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 07 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $102 +$39 +38%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $400 −$270 -68%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $250 +$45 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $150 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 12 $100 −$29 -29%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $100 −$64 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 23 $100 −$93 -93%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 13 $150 −$150 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $100 +$170 +170%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $400 +$126 +31%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Mar 25 $200 −$66 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 16 $28 +$24 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 09 $100 +$90 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 09 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 09 $200 −$200 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Mar 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 08 $198 +$140 +71%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $376 −$262 -70%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Mar 04 $100 −$40 -40%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Feb 28 $224 +$76 +34%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $248 +$2,508 +1011%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 09 $28 +$82 +296%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 09 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 05 $20 +$5 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $535 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 21¢ $103 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 12¢ $42 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 27h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 27h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $173 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $398 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.05 · official $100.05 (match) · 122 history records