Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb628…0940 crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 565d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate76%41W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$12
crypto 8% +$1
politics 2% +$5
other 2% −$1
tech 1% +$1
weather 0% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 54 -1.0% -10.4% 76% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

565d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses41 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage565d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in April? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 05 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? Jan 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 04 $11 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $5,345 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 by February 28 2025? Mar 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 12 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Devin Booker win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1? Feb 17 $13 $0 +3%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win La Liga? Jan 20 $8 −$4 -50%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Dec 25 $6 $0 -1%
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? Dec 24 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Dec 23 $110 −$2 -2%
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 Dec 23 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary? Dec 23 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Dec 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? Dec 21 $52 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 31d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 62d
Will BNB reach $800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 62d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 98¢ $35 63d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 92d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $41 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $6 121d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $18 121d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $24 123d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $5 151d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 100¢ $8 151d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $39 151d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 182d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? BUY No 100¢ $36 182d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $34 212d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 99¢ $4 241d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 100¢ $12 242d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $31 243d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $11 272d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? BUY No 100¢ $26 273d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $3 301d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $13 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? BUY No 100¢ $33 303d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $4 333d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $11 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $32 334d
Solana all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $12 366d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 366d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.65 · official $44.65 (match) · 123 history records