Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:28:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B6 0xb627…0557 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$16 · open −$16

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip

Net edge+32%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day4.9pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+37.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+52.0%	+37.6%	100%	100%	+37.6%
≤30d	1	+52.0%	+37.6%	100%	100%	+37.6%
≤90d	1	+52.0%	+37.6%	100%	100%	+37.6%
all	1	+52.0%	+37.6%	100%	100%	+37.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+37.6%	100%	+37.6%
10%	+24.4%	100%	+24.4%
15%	+12.4%	100%	+12.4%
20%	+1.4%	100%	+1.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +52% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +52% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$183

Realized+$16

Unrealized−$16

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions7

Markets (closed)1 / 10

History coverage3d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day4.9

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$60	$58	−$2 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$60	$47	−$13 (-21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	19¢	21¢	$22	$24	+$2 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	15¢	15¢	$17	$17	+$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$16	$16	−$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	10¢	$15	$12	−$3 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$9	$9	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$20	+$11	+52%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$31	1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY	45¢	$10	5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	5h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: Both Tea	BUY	29¢	$5	5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$9	3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$15	3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$17	3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	15¢	$18	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$23	3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$21	3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$21	3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$21	3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$21	3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$21	3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$21	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.34 · official $198.06 · 18 history records