Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:47:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B6 0xb627…d968 sports 1157 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$112 (-0%) realized −$71 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%673W / 562L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day47.7pace
Fees−$209est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$758
7 days−$822
14 days−$651
30 days−$1,077
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$366
other 17% +$175
weather 9% −$92
world 1% −$33
tech 1% −$9
politics 0% +$9
crypto 0% −$25
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -38.8% -44.6% 35% 25% -36.0%
≤30d 670 -17.9% -25.7% 52% 36% -17.4%
≤90d 1235 -11.5% -19.9% 54% 38% -13.9%
all 1235 -11.5% -19.9% 54% 38% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 38% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 27% -22.1%
15% -34.6% 20% -29.7%
20% -41.0% 15% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses673 / 562
Est. fees paid−$209
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1235 / 1157
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day47.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 98¢ 95¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 76¢ 100¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 90¢ 90¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 5¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-94%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 62¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Solary 67¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 12 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on April 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 12? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on April 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 15 $22 −$5 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +2663%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or higher on April 6? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 12 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 13? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 12 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on April 13? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 6? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 13 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 11? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 12 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$5 -92%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 14? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 12? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 12? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on April 14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 67¢ $15 58m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $15 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Galions 73¢ $9 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Galions 73¢ $7 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 68¢ $15 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $15 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $18 12h
Hazem Mastouri: 1+ goals BUY No 91¢ $15 12h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $15 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $4 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 15h
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 17h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 68¢ $15 18h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 62¢ $15 19h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 65¢ $6 20h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 65¢ $9 20h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $16 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $15 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $15 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $15 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 26h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 76¢ $15 28h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 67¢ $15 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.95 · official $78.95 (match) · 3500 history records