Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb627…68b5 sports 191 markets active 0h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,469 (+9%) realized +$8,212 · open +$257
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate62%118W / 71L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$491per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$785est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,606now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,261
7 days+$394
14 days−$2,331
30 days+$6,718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$9,798
other 18% −$1,202
crypto 2% +$11
world 1% −$510
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -8.0% -16.8% 52% 51% -8.6%
≤30d 179 +1.7% -8.0% 61% 58% -2.7%
≤90d 188 +3.0% -6.8% 62% 59% -1.9%
all 189 +3.6% -6.3% 62% 59% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 59% -1.8%
10% -15.3% 50% -11.2%
15% -23.5% 42% -19.8%
20% -31.0% 33% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$609) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$258 vs −$319 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$1,606
Realized+$8,212
Unrealized+$257
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses118 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$785
Open positions2
Markets (closed)189 / 191
History coverage201d
Avg bet$491
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 78¢ 100¢ $977 $1,249 +$272 (+28%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 62¢ 60¢ $372 $357 −$15 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $108 −$105 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $607 +$393 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $345 +$155 +45%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $381 +$179 +47%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $563 +$462 +82%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,269 +$180 +14%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $230 −$230 -100%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $497 +$384 +77%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $257 +$243 +95%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,782 +$203 +7%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $306 −$75 -24%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $56 −$55 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $547 −$540 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $219 +$281 +129%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $650 +$350 +54%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $550 −$360 -66%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $407 +$593 +146%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $437 +$563 +129%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $254 −$205 -81%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,175 +$825 +70%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $652 +$348 +54%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $537 −$428 -80%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $657 −$650 -99%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $637 +$363 +57%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $597 +$403 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,081 +$225 +11%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,419 +$578 +41%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $331 −$327 -99%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $358 +$207 +58%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $259 −$255 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $211 +$171 +81%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $190 −$190 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $355 −$355 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $320 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 16 $366 −$366 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $670 −$670 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $630 −$630 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $510 −$510 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $627 −$627 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $746 −$746 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $367 −$367 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 16 $1,067 −$1,067 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $1,537 +$498 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $706 +$294 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 62¢ $376 0m
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $108 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $684 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $205 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $70 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $14 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $607 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $241 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $104 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 68¢ $139 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 68¢ $212 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 68¢ $4 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 68¢ $25 8h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 76¢ $285 9h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 76¢ $41 9h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 76¢ $14 9h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 85¢ $611 9h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 85¢ $8 9h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 85¢ $12 9h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 85¢ $61 9h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 85¢ $72 9h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 85¢ $85 9h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $78 10h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 54¢ $1 12h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 54¢ $228 12h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 54¢ $2 12h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 54¢ $10 12h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 54¢ $29 12h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 55¢ $293 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,606.37 · official $1,612.37 (match) · 927 history records