Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb627…2d13 sports 244 markets active 16h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,108 (+3%) realized +$3,108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%128W / 114L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$457per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$993est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$421
7 days−$965
14 days−$647
30 days−$1,915
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,147
other 0% +$3
world 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -13.9% -22.1% 45% 45% -30.8%
≤30d 123 -10.8% -19.3% 48% 48% -21.1%
≤90d 242 -1.1% -10.5% 53% 52% -7.8%
all 242 -1.1% -10.5% 53% 52% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 52% -7.8%
10% -19.1% 46% -16.6%
15% -26.9% 41% -24.7%
20% -34.1% 31% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$242 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses128 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$993
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 244
History coverage89d
Avg bet$457
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $48 −$47 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $29 −$29 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $36 −$36 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $50 +$7 +14%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $25 +$34 +135%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $30 +$25 +82%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $31 +$44 +143%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $50 +$22 +43%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $50 +$112 +223%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 −$29 -67%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $40 +$22 +55%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $67 −$5 -8%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $25 +$16 +65%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$32 +90%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $158 −$156 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$48 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $175 +$235 +134%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$63 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $71 −$38 -54%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $56 −$56 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $69 −$68 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $212 +$101 +48%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $192 +$119 +62%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$94 +93%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $78 −$72 -93%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $200 −$199 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $177 −$176 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $151 +$41 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $201 +$45 +22%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $755 −$753 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$26 +26%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$43 +43%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $101 +$46 +46%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $102 +$98 +97%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $209 +$198 +95%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $50 +$23 +46%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $61 −$60 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $48 15h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 68¢ $202 16h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $50 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 44¢ $29 37h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ $36 38h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 69¢ $25 39h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 82¢ $57 41h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 98¢ $60 42h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 41¢ $25 42h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 19¢ $26 43h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 63¢ $51 43h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $50 44h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $55 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $30 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 99¢ $74 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $10 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $20 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $72 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $50 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $162 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $25 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 30¢ $50 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $51 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 13¢ $14 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A BUY 26¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $43 4d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 64¢ $40 4d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Solary 59¢ $61 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 493 history records