Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:04:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B6 0xb624…b614 other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,020 (-2%) realized −$2,021 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate14%17W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$948per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$976now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$383
politics 35% −$45
sports 19% −$1,596
world 2% −$2
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 124 -8.3% -17.0% 14% 6% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 6% -11.1%
10% -25.0% 6% -19.6%
15% -32.2% 6% -27.4%
20% -38.9% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,151) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$25 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$976
Realized−$2,021
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses17 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage136d
Avg bet$948
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $566 $568 +$1 (+0%)
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $409 $409 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 27 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $414 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,050 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,777 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,565 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,020 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $705 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 03 $363 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,396 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $564 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $731 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 19 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 11 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,823 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $985 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $3,298 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $2,910 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,519 −$3 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $4,118 −$4 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $932 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $992 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $2,629 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $3,141 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $872 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $409 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $409 5h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $409 6h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $410 23h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $410 25h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $411 27h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $412 29h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $409 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $409 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $412 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $413 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $412 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $412 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $414 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $414 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $566 11d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $638 14d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $639 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $935 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $936 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $888 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $889 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $945 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $947 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $882 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $884 15d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $854 21d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $855 21d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $919 23d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $920 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $976.38 · official $976.38 (match) · 402 history records