Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb623…e284 weather 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -1.0% -10.5% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 14 -1.0% -10.5% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 14 -1.0% -10.5% 14% 0% -10.1%
all 14 -1.0% -10.5% 14% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 0% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $44 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $66 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $64 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $70 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $8 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $39 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $32 34h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $0 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.27 · official $6.27 (match) · 103 history records