Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:58:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb623…476d other 204 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,711 (-15%) realized −$1,260 · open −$451
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%65W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$1,954now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$345
14 days−$354
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$216
politics 17% −$316
economics 14% −$1,322
sports 9% −$124
world 4% −$111
tech 1% +$8
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -59.5% -63.4% 20% 17% -46.5%
≤30d 61 +25.6% +13.6% 49% 39% -4.0%
≤90d 125 +9.0% -1.4% 42% 36% -34.8%
all 157 +7.5% -2.8% 41% 34% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 34% -29.5%
10% -12.1% 30% -36.2%
15% -20.6% 25% -42.4%
20% -28.4% 21% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$36 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$1,954
Realized−$1,260
Unrealized−$451
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses65 / 92
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions47
Markets (closed)157 / 204
History coverage153d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $228 $211 −$17 (-7%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $413 $178 −$235 (-57%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $122 $169 +$47 (+38%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $254 $163 −$91 (-36%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $114 $106 −$8 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $102 $96 −$6 (-6%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 17¢ 16¢ $77 $75 −$2 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $85 $67 −$18 (-21%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 9¢ 6¢ $89 $65 −$24 (-27%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $60 $58 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $46 $58 +$12 (+26%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $52 $46 −$5 (-10%)
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $34 $42 +$8 (+25%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $39 $36 −$3 (-9%)
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $31 $28 −$3 (-8%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+34%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-5%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $31 $26 −$5 (-17%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-6%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$29 +58%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$17 -42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $65 +$12 +18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 −$20 -59%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 14 $25 −$3 -12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $25 −$1 -2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Sonego vs Ignacio Buse Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mattia Bellucci vs Martin Landaluce Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 12 $31 −$26 -84%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $74 +$8 +11%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $45 −$38 -84%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open? Jun 09 $11 +$6 +55%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $36 +$2 +4%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 08 $19 +$3 +16%
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's US Open? Jun 08 $17 +$4 +25%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Jun 08 $4 +$2 +64%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $21 +$6 +31%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $54 +$21 +38%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 05 $163 −$54 -33%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $5 +$17 +311%
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 03 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $20 +$50 +248%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $35 +$151 +430%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $5 +$82 +1568%
Will Moise Kouame win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $20 +$42 +211%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $24 +$15 +64%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $57 +$101 +177%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $24 32m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $33 35m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $80 55m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 63¢ $26 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $77 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $15 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 4h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 17¢ $9 12h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 54¢ $28 13h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 13h
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 15h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 17¢ $10 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 63¢ $12 17h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 18h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 17¢ $0 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,954.30 · official $1,954.34 (match) · 1195 history records