Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb622…5b8e crypto 40 markets active 6d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-3%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$46
sports 4% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -7.9% -16.7% 44% 44% -15.3%
≤30d 40 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 45% -16.4%
≤90d 40 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 45% -16.4%
all 40 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 45% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 45% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 45% -24.4%
15% -25.6% 40% -31.7%
20% -32.9% 32% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage4d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$5 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $39 −$17 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $81 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$55 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$16 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$11 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$11 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $30 −$22 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $20 +$11 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 07 $16 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $38 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 07 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $63 +$48 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 07 $33 +$15 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $8 +$7 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $4 +$10 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 07 $4 +$7 +167%
Philip Henning vs. Alexander Donski: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Centurion 2: Philip Henning vs Alexander Donski Jun 07 $3 +$12 +363%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 07 $9 +$4 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 35¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $32 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records