Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:04:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb621…8d89 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-5%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$12
other 22% −$18
politics 8% $0
finance 5% $0
sports 3% −$11
economics 3% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.5% -13.6% 44% 0% -12.7%
≤30d 11 -3.8% -13.0% 45% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 19 -6.7% -15.6% 47% 5% -11.5%
all 37 -11.3% -19.8% 32% 3% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 3% -14.4%
10% -27.4% 3% -22.6%
15% -34.4% 0% -30.1%
20% -40.9% 0% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage492d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $2 $0 +4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $32 +$2 +7%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $26 −$14 -53%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $48 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $56 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $16 +$1 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $2 $0 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $33 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $44 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $24 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $59 −$4 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $2 $0 -15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 22 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $20 +$2 +9%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +8%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on May 9? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025? May 09 $18 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 07 $19 $0 +0%
SIU-Edwardsville vs. Morehead State Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $11 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $23 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $33 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $4 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $29 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $22 40h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $9 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 43h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $45 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $48 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $48 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $48 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $48 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $48 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.56 · official $33.12 (match) · 103 history records