Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B6 0xb61f…be5d sports 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$805 (+4%) realized +$805 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate52%53W / 48L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$303
14 days+$183
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$715
other 1% −$13
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +3.6% -6.3% 59% 18% -5.2%
≤30d 51 -12.3% -20.6% 41% 20% -8.2%
≤90d 101 -5.0% -14.1% 52% 26% -6.1%
all 101 -5.0% -14.1% 52% 26% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 26% -6.1%
10% -22.3% 15% -15.1%
15% -29.8% 11% -23.3%
20% -36.7% 10% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$14 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$805
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses53 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage51d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 $0 -23%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $1,001 −$26 -3%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 $0 +6%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $980 +$19 +2%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $21 +$1 +5%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $153 −$20 -13%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -81%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $776 +$31 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 $0 -8%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $807 +$290 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $0 $0 -55%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $118 +$7 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +78%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $427 +$17 +4%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 $0 -43%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 $0 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +22%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4 +$6 +134%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $999 −$58 -6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $981 +$33 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +4%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-05-10? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-05-21? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SD Huesca vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B end in a draw? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-24? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Real Zaragoza vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $302 −$96 -32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$8 +71%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -21%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $999 −$25 -2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $999 −$32 -3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $999 −$105 -10%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $179 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $498 +$135 +27%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +25%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -75%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,000 −$70 -7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -34%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,000 +$74 +7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +213%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 45m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 46m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $392 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 74¢ $584 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $334 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $501 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $61 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $105 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 21h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $999 21h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $346 21h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $346 21h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $186 21h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $98 21h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $5 21h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 21h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 21h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $21 21h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 84¢ $133 28h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 96¢ $34 28h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 96¢ $8 28h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 96¢ $103 28h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 96¢ $8 28h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 28h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $807 29h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 96¢ $776 29h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 46h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $807 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 288 history records