trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 75¢ | 76¢ | $31 | $31 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 13 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $31 | −$1 | -2% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 09 | $21 | +$1 | +2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 28 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Jun 06 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6? | Jun 05 | $11 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | May 16 | $3 | $0 | -10% |
| Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Apr 18 | $3 | $0 | -1% |
| Trump x Putin talk by Friday? | Apr 18 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the SPD be part of the next German government? | Apr 16 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? | Apr 16 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| U.S. Federal judge impeached before April? | Mar 29 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 28 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 25 | $2 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? | Mar 20 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 14 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Mar 14 | $14 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? | Mar 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 25% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 17% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 17% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 27 | -7.2% | -16.1% | 37% | 0% | -10.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.1% | 0% | -10.1% |
| 10% | -24.1% | 0% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -31.4% | 0% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -38.1% | 0% | -33.7% |