Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:16:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B6
0xb619…5068
other · 146 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$72,865 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13,191 · open −$4,936
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$227,800
Realized+$13,191
Unrealized−$4,936
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses48 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$827
Open positions110
Markets (closed)88 / 146
History coverage24d
Avg bet$2,699
Trades / day141.4
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 110 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,359
7 days−$2,221
14 days+$14,207
30 days+$13,191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16,790 $16,645 −$145 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15,299 $13,387 −$1,912 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $9,515 $11,463 +$1,948 (+20%)
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Yes 34¢ 48¢ $8,093 $11,448 +$3,355 (+41%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11,019 $9,452 −$1,566 (-14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $8,759 $7,863 −$896 (-10%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 50¢ 48¢ $8,191 $7,762 −$429 (-5%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8,407 $7,600 −$807 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 93¢ 75¢ $9,314 $7,530 −$1,784 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $9,350 $7,450 −$1,900 (-20%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 61¢ 56¢ $8,177 $7,438 −$739 (-9%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 68¢ $7,467 $7,331 −$137 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $6,680 $6,660 −$20 (-0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 42¢ 97¢ $2,616 $6,079 +$3,463 (+132%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $6,108 $6,023 −$85 (-1%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $5,553 $5,601 +$48 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 84¢ $4,103 $5,592 +$1,489 (+36%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $5,556 $5,540 −$16 (-0%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 90¢ $5,562 $5,363 −$198 (-4%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 89¢ $5,634 $5,251 −$383 (-7%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $4,550 $4,675 +$125 (+3%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No 88¢ 93¢ $3,594 $3,813 +$219 (+6%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $3,789 $3,730 −$59 (-2%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $3,500 $3,575 +$75 (+2%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 89¢ $3,420 $3,289 −$131 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 14 $3,527 −$3,527 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $0 +$970 +1175630%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $23 +$6 +27%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,254 −$1,240 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $484 +$542 +112%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2,100 +$2,900 +138%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,650 −$1,645 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4,514 +$486 +11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3,100 −$3,100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $21,615 +$2,497 +12%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $18 +$11 +59%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $207 +$38 +18%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2,405 +$95 +4%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 07 $2,250 +$250 +11%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2,601 −$2,600 -100%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $3,360 −$3,360 -100%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $2,039 +$1,359 +67%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $400 +$4,600 +1150%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 04 $3,101 +$1,899 +61%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $2,296 +$2,782 +121%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $3,568 +$1,807 +51%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 04 $1,532 +$1,676 +110%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $870 −$870 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $678 +$1,264 +186%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $1,943 −$1,930 -99%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $4,556 +$444 +10%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2,700 +$2,300 +85%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $278 +$53 +19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $297 −$297 -100%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $948 −$940 -99%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $2,653 −$2,650 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 01 $9 −$9 -98%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $585 −$585 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2,655 +$2,345 +88%
Will Bulgaria vs. Montenegro end in a draw? Jun 01 $3,450 +$1,550 +45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $348 +$57 +16%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $2,604 +$2,395 +92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $21,211 +$5,832 +28%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 01 $577 −$574 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $521 +$256 +49%
Will AD Ceuta FC vs. Albacete Balompié end in a draw? May 31 $1,057 +$433 +41%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $763 −$759 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $21 +$979 +4756%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $18,601 +$18 +0%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $217 +$80 +37%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15,493 +$7,062 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $2,951 −$2,951 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 66% +$223
world 19% +$8,627
sports 12% −$1,864
finance 1% +$3,483
crypto 1% +$444
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $52 16m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $8 30m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $8 35m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $8 50m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $8 51m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $8 52m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $8 52m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $8 52m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $26 53m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $6 53m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $8 56m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $6 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $10 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $34 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $26 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $8 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $6 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $7 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $2 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $25 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $258 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $26 3h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $10 3h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $34 3h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $5 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $313 4h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $71 6h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $10 7h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $160 7h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $7 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+54.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -20.0% -27.6% 50% 50% -17.0%
≤30d 88 +70.7% +54.4% 55% 50% -6.3%
≤90d 88 +70.7% +54.4% 55% 50% -6.3%
all 88 +70.7% +54.4% 55% 50% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover141.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +54.4% 50% -6.3%
10% +39.7% 42% -15.3%
15% ← realistic here +26.2% 40% -23.5%
20% +13.8% 33% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227,800.21 · official $227,810.27 (match) · 3500 history records