Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B6 0xb619…6586 sports 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,739 (+12%) realized +$5,711 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%26W / 22L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$927per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$620est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,883now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,172
7 days−$1,413
14 days+$8,049
30 days+$5,589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$5,617
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +4.4% -5.6% 50% 50% -16.8%
≤30d 48 +57.1% +42.2% 54% 52% +1.8%
≤90d 48 +57.1% +42.2% 54% 52% +1.8%
all 48 +57.1% +42.2% 54% 52% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.2% 52% +1.8%
10% ← realistic here +28.6% 50% -7.9%
15% +16.1% 48% -16.8%
20% +4.8% 44% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,358) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +107% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$912 vs −$824 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$2,883
Realized+$5,711
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses26 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$620
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage26d
Avg bet$927
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in Second Half No 76¢ 76¢ $2,799 $2,799 −$1 (-0%)
Wimbledon ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Zizou Bergs Zizou Bergs 28¢ 42¢ $56 $84 +$29 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $282 +$310 +110%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 27 $1,647 −$1,635 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 26 $1,656 −$1,632 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 26 $219 −$215 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 26 $2,042 +$408 +20%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1,702 −$1,674 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2,790 −$2,777 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Teodora Kostovic vs Lin Zhu Jun 25 $1,476 +$2,782 +188%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $277 +$209 +75%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $505 −$490 -97%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $279 +$89 +32%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $481 −$474 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 24 $150 +$265 +177%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $300 +$379 +126%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 23 $238 −$227 -95%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) Jun 22 $461 −$461 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-4.5) Jun 22 $1,099 +$1,649 +150%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2,080 +$2,080 +100%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York Jun 21 $67 +$67 +101%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $349 −$349 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $423 +$1,056 +250%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $66 −$65 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $4,396 +$1,566 +36%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $6,897 +$7,172 +104%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 18 $12 +$24 +205%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $7,011 −$6,913 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 12 $353 −$347 -98%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $27 +$49 +180%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $24 −$23 -98%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $1,358 +$997 +74%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $157 −$154 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $29 −$28 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 11 $83 −$81 -97%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 09 $28 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pl Jun 09 $22 +$60 +280%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $152 +$81 +53%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $276 −$276 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $350 +$1,050 +300%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $1,686 +$1,046 +62%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $422 +$359 +85%
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Barbora Palicova Jun 05 $43 +$1,027 +2400%
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Kayla Day Jun 04 $248 +$120 +48%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan Jun 04 $25 −$25 -98%
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5) Jun 04 $106 +$99 +93%
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) Jun 04 $874 +$775 +89%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 02 $24 +$1 +4%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Jun 02 $257 −$249 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 75¢ $7 18m
Wimbledon ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Zizou Bergs BUY Zizou Bergs 28¢ $57 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 76¢ $1,464 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 75¢ $1,349 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 47¢ $18 18h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 47¢ $23 18h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 47¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 47¢ $239 18h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 77¢ $72 24h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 76¢ $1,575 25h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $1,656 36h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 41¢ $219 45h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1,702 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $9 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $16 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $23 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $112 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $58 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $36 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $48 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $23 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,065 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $58 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $12 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $16 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $28 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,882.95 · official $2,882.95 (match) · 392 history records