Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:11:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb617…ea50 sports 420 markets active 0h ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$83 (-1%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate66%274W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$12
14 days−$78
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$232
other 14% −$16
politics 7% +$138
world 0% −$3
crypto 0% −$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -5.8% -14.7% 70% 30% -10.9%
≤30d 276 -8.6% -17.3% 68% 28% -13.6%
≤90d 385 -6.7% -15.6% 69% 29% -10.7%
all 413 -8.6% -17.3% 66% 29% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 29% -10.2%
10% -25.2% 13% -18.8%
15% -32.4% 7% -26.6%
20% -39.0% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses274 / 139
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)413 / 420
History coverage366d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 86¢ 73¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 34¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+147%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $1 +$1 +138%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $59 +$1 +2%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 -22%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 $0 -15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $8 +$3 +39%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $1 $0 +8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +71%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +3%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -50%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $9 $0 -5%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 +$1 +6%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $55 +$2 +4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $4 +$3 +65%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $1 $0 +21%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 23 $5 −$2 -43%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $7 +$1 +11%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 23 $1 $0 +16%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6 +$1 +19%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 23 $48 +$1 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +42%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 22 $4 $0 +4%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -31%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $7 $0 -5%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $1 $0 -37%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 $0 +2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 $0 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 20 $4 +$1 +16%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $4 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +44%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $30 −$28 -93%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $20 +$1 +7%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $2 $0 -17%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +38%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $44 −$13 -29%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 +$6 +16%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $3 $0 -9%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 44¢ $1 10m
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will South Africa vs. Korea BUY 58¢ $1 11m
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 86¢ $2 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics SELL Washington Mystics 36¢ $1 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 34¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 92¢ $8 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $11 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Baltimore Orioles 86¢ $5 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 92¢ $7 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 2h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 74¢ $3 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 83¢ $4 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 74¢ $0 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 3h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $3 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 85¢ $1 3h
Morocco to score first vs. Haiti? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 82¢ $2 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $11 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.22 · official $4.36 · 1538 history records