Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb615…c187 sports 260 markets active 1d ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$723 (+6%) realized +$717 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%159W / 97L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$71
14 days−$71
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$483
other 11% +$73
crypto 9% +$115
politics 1% +$10
world 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -29.8% -36.5% 27% 18% -18.0%
≤30d 11 -29.8% -36.5% 27% 18% -18.0%
≤90d 93 -10.0% -18.6% 59% 46% -7.4%
all 256 -3.4% -12.6% 62% 50% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 50% -3.6%
10% -20.9% 36% -12.9%
15% -28.6% 19% -21.3%
20% -35.6% 11% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$717
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses159 / 97
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions2
Markets (closed)256 / 260
History coverage603d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $140 $146 +$6 (+4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $57 −$22 -39%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$2 -19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $59 −$30 -51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $34 −$7 -20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $85 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$15 -48%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $127 +$13 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $87 +$36 +41%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $7 −$7 -99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $141 +$72 +51%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $495 −$232 -47%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $350 +$92 +26%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $20 +$6 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $30 −$10 -34%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $309 −$40 -13%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $344 +$47 +14%
Will Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Apr 20 $5 +$2 +44%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Francesco Maestrel Apr 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Moise Kouame Apr 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $20 +$5 +27%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 20 $40 +$5 +13%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $299 +$17 +6%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 20 $70 +$21 +30%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $60 +$18 +31%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 19 $238 +$22 +9%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 19 $229 +$9 +4%
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Clement Tabur Apr 19 $10 +$5 +46%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 19 $216 +$9 +4%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $133 +$84 +63%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $102 +$30 +30%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $137 +$12 +9%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 18 $81 +$11 +13%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $9 −$1 -7%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $72 −$31 -43%
Ducks vs. Wild Apr 15 $3 $0 -3%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 15 $5 $0 -2%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Apr 14 $65 −$65 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 13 $62 +$3 +4%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $140 +$23 +16%
Will Gaziantep FK win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $10 −$9 -95%
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Barcelona Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Hamad Medjedovic Apr 13 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $144 28h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under $8 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 SELL Over 25¢ $8 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 12¢ $16 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 56¢ $27 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 69¢ $34 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 34¢ $34 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 37¢ $28 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Under 35¢ $27 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 78¢ $21 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $41 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $85 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $85 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $85 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 11¢ $43 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 86¢ $82 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 60¢ $58 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 69¢ $58 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 81¢ $69 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 26¢ $54 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $123 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.72 · official $147.72 (match) · 656 history records