Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:59:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb615…6f09 crypto 755 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,679 (+7%) realized +$4,679 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate88%661W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day42.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$576
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +8.2% -2.1% 94% 29% -2.3%
≤30d 351 +11.4% +0.8% 91% 32% -0.9%
≤90d 755 +7.6% -2.6% 88% 35% -8.8%
all 755 +7.6% -2.6% 88% 35% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.6% 35% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 19% -17.5%
15% -20.4% 12% -25.5%
20% -28.2% 9% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$124 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,679
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses661 / 94
Open positions0
Markets (closed)755 / 755
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$90
Trades / day42.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 755 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $299 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $236 +$20 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $157 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $139 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $300 +$45 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $204 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $170 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $300 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $151 +$19 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $301 +$29 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $110 +$78 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$49 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $118 +$111 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $108 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$254 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $46 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $150 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $190 +$54 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $59 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $111 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $202 +$81 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$27 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $155 +$29 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $151 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $22 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $150 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $139 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $22 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $151 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $75 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $38 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $45 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $27 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $48 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $54 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records