Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B6 0xb614…2a44 other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,075 (-4%) realized −$1,078 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%52W / 80L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$250
7 days−$399
14 days−$430
30 days−$570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$1,703
crypto 18% +$712
world 1% −$277
economics 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -85.0% -86.4% 0% 0% -89.0%
≤30d 27 -7.9% -16.6% 33% 33% -28.4%
≤90d 63 -12.2% -20.5% 37% 37% -20.9%
all 132 -5.2% -14.3% 39% 38% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 38% -14.2%
10% -22.5% 33% -22.4%
15% -30.0% 29% -29.9%
20% -36.8% 23% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$105 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$1,078
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses52 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage172d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $66 $69 +$3 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $67 −$66 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $67 −$65 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $77 −$74 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $50 −$45 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $53 −$3 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $48 −$46 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $105 −$101 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $63 +$43 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $110 +$16 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $47 −$45 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $42 −$39 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $48 −$5 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $86 −$81 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $24 +$64 +267%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $47 −$23 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 07 $507 −$282 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $217 −$34 -15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $113 +$212 +187%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $176 +$34 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $47 +$33 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $223 −$20 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 +$23 +206%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 31? May 31 $126 +$75 +59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 31 $131 −$5 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $56 +$76 +136%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $155 −$149 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $125 +$31 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $126 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $99 +$28 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $70 +$29 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $112 −$43 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $84 +$130 +155%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $101 −$70 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $59 −$7 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 28 $27 −$3 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $70 −$42 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $48 +$24 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $98 −$94 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $63 +$37 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $504 −$438 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $237 +$267 +113%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $539 −$28 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $284 +$245 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $44 +$12 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $74 −$60 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $67 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $67 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 55¢ $67 29h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $77 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 29¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 31¢ $48 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 69¢ $53 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $105 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 58¢ $63 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $63 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $63 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $63 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $47 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $47 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 17¢ $42 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 76¢ $42 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 83¢ $48 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 9¢ $86 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 26¢ $24 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 27¢ $24 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 49¢ $47 15d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY Yes 36¢ $83 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 17d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $184 17d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $217 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? SELL Yes 23¢ $216 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.63 · official $68.63 (match) · 314 history records