Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb60c…87af sports 161 markets active 6d ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%24W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$2
other 26% −$3
politics 19% −$2
economics 8% +$1
crypto 8% −$2
culture 6% −$1
world 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 2 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.8%
all 161 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses24 / 137
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)161 / 161
History coverage149d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 161 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $34 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 18 $94 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 12 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 12 $320 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 11 $41 $0 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $106 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 09 $272 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 09 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 08 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 07 $81 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 07 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 03 $56 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $119 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $122 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $227 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 01 $138 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 01 $78 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 01 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 01 $81 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 01 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $119 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $34 6d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $34 6d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $37 18d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $37 19d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $28 30d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $28 33d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $30 89d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $30 89d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 89d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 89d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $33 89d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $33 90d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $40 90d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $40 90d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $33 90d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $33 90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 91d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $41 91d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $41 91d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $35 91d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $36 91d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $37 91d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $37 91d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $38 91d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $38 92d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $36 92d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $36 92d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $33 92d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $33 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 763 history records