Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:15:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B6 0xb608…6c51 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$17
other 25% −$1
crypto 5% +$2
economics 1% $0
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 26 -0.9% -10.4% 50% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage534d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $90 in January? Feb 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $510 end of November? Dec 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.50 in August? Sep 17 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in June 2025? Jul 16 $19 +$1 +4%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 13 $1,391 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 14 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $3,933 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $15 $0 +3%
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in scoring? Feb 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $11 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 25 $12 $0 -0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Jan 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jan 20 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? Jan 18 $25 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Jan 18 $27 $0 -1%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jan 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will Real Betis win La Liga? Jan 08 $39 −$13 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Solana reach $160 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 34d
Will Solana dip to $90 in January? BUY No 100¢ $18 148d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $28 181d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $510 end of November? BUY No 100¢ $20 210d
Will XRP dip to $2.50 in August? BUY No 96¢ $18 300d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 99¢ $18 333d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in June 2025? BUY No 96¢ $19 364d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 394d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $27 407d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $27 412d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 425d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 430d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 430d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 434d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 434d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 100¢ $1,390 439d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 100¢ $1,391 439d
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? BUY No 98¢ $20 456d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $3,929 471d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $3,933 471d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 97¢ $15 484d
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $13 490d
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in scoring? SELL No 100¢ $17 494d
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in scoring? BUY No 100¢ $17 498d
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $11 510d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $12 517d
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $28 517d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $12 519d
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $28 520d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.97 · official $41.97 (match) · 53 history records