Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:08:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B6 0xb605…d39c sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$258 · open +$251
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$207
sports 19% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-61.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -57.2% -61.3% 20% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 5 -57.2% -61.3% 20% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 5 -57.2% -61.3% 20% 0% -12.9%
all 5 -57.2% -61.3% 20% 0% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.3% 0% -12.9%
10% -65.0% 0% -21.3%
15% -68.4% 0% -28.9%
20% -71.5% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,385
Realized−$258
Unrealized+$251
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)5 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $1,090 $1,306 +$216 (+20%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina McCartney Kessler 0¢ 100¢ $0 $43 +$43 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-74%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Cocciaretto (+1.5) Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle Jun 22 $12 −$12 -93%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Jun 22 $211 +$14 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY McCartney Kessler 69¢ $30 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle SELL Zhizhen Zhang 2¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle SELL Zhizhen Zhang 2¢ $0 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch BUY Florent Bax 32¢ $5 1h
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva SELL Tommaso Compagnucci 100¢ $2 1h
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva SELL Tommaso Compagnucci 100¢ $220 1h
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva SELL Maxim Mrva 5¢ $3 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle BUY Zhizhen Zhang 26¢ $10 1h
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva BUY Tommaso Compagnucci 90¢ $201 1h
Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Cocciaretto (+1.5) BUY Tomljanovic 0¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva BUY Maxim Mrva 19¢ $10 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Elisabetta Cocciaretto 34¢ $10 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle BUY Zhizhen Zhang 31¢ $2 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $999 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,385.25 · official $1,385.52 (match) · 21 history records