trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 100% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 15 | +1.4% | -8.3% | 40% | 7% | -8.6% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +1.4% | -8.3% | 40% | 7% | -8.6% |
| all | 25 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 60% | 4% | -8.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.9% | 4% | -8.4% |
| 10% | -16.7% | 0% | -17.2% |
| 15% | -24.8% | 0% | -25.2% |
| 20% | -32.1% | 0% | -32.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 51¢ | 54¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 17 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 16 | $27 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $8 | $0 | +4% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $55 | +$2 | +3% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 14 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 13 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 13 | $11 | $0 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 12 | $28 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 10 | $20 | +$3 | +17% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 09 | $48 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 08 | $47 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 08 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $66 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $3 | $0 | -8% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 05 | $53 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? | Dec 13 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? | Jun 24 | $10 | +$1 | +9% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? | May 19 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? | May 17 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 30 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? | Mar 25 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? | Mar 20 | $13 | $0 | +2% |