Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5fe…1471 other 321 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-1%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%61W / 246L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$280
7 days−$655
14 days−$28
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$85
sports 38% +$238
world 3% −$131
crypto 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -45.6% -50.8% 17% 17% -52.8%
≤30d 214 -12.2% -20.6% 16% 16% -17.0%
≤90d 307 -4.6% -13.7% 20% 20% -9.3%
all 307 -4.6% -13.7% 20% 20% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 20% -9.3%
10% -21.9% 19% -18.0%
15% -29.5% 19% -25.9%
20% -36.4% 19% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$13 · ×4.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses61 / 246
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)307 / 321
History coverage54d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 307 Trades
no open positions (238 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: IK Start 1 - 1 Vålerenga Fotball? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $51 +$6 +11%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $29 −$28 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $44 −$43 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $25 +$19 +76%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$46 +226%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $15 −$12 -78%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $34 −$33 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $86 −$86 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $20 +$36 +178%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $20 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$19 +188%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$18 +181%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $16 +$117 +712%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 +$3 +134%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $2 +$2 +105%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $47 −$46 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 36m
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 14¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 4h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $20 4h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $31 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 62¢ $10 9h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2. BUY 4¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $29 12h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 16h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2 BUY 6¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $44 22h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $25 24h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 26h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 7¢ $36 42h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Exact BUY 5¢ $10 45h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 46h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 47h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 30¢ $20 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 33¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $36 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $29 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $10 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 445 history records