Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B5 0xb5fb…70ee crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+0%) realized +$74 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate89%25W / 3L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$1,747per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$7,474now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$51
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$81
economics 17% −$12
tech 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.5% -9.1% 75% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 +0.5% -9.1% 75% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 18 +3.1% -6.7% 83% 11% -9.4%
all 28 +4.3% -5.6% 89% 11% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 11% -9.4%
10% -14.6% 7% -18.1%
15% -22.9% 4% -26.0%
20% -30.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,794) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.11 per $1 lost it wins $6.11
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$7,474
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses25 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage198d
Avg bet$1,747
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET Jun 26 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET Jun 26 $1,932 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET Jun 26 $1,795 +$6 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET Jun 26 $1,790 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET Jun 26 $438 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or below on May 25? Jun 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M Jun 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 26 $4 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $7,963 +$42 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 25 $8,547 −$12 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $8,572 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 24 $8,572 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C or below on April 21? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? May 24 $2 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co May 24 $4 +$1 +16%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 20 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13? Mar 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 10 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Feb 08 $1 $0 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 08 $3 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 23? Jan 12 $7,770 +$17 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 10? Dec 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 8-14? Dec 22 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $500 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $499 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $300 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $226 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $460 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $169 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $330 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $479 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $224 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $134 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $66 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $161 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $199 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $199 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $199 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $200 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $200 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $200 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $199 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $199 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $199 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,474.28 · official $7,474.28 (match) · 204 history records