Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T11:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B5
0xb5f6…f490
sports · 29 markets active 0h ago
7.5score
+$1,699 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,880 · open −$234
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$976
Realized+$1,880
Unrealized−$234
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions6
Markets (closed)23 / 29
History coverage582d
Avg bet$725
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 6 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $500 $403 −$97 (-19%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $200 $163 −$37 (-19%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $200 $142 −$58 (-29%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $200 $140 −$60 (-30%)
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? No 62¢ 72¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 29¢ 34¢ $9 $11 +$1 (+16%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 13¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $866 +$263 +30%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $304 +$71 +23%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $509 −$17 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $615 −$333 -54%
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 11 $51 −$4 -8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $101 +$22 +21%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Biden finish his term? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 05 $100 $0 -0%
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July? Dec 05 $155 −$24 -15%
Will Trump's hush money conviction be overturned? Dec 05 $500 −$390 -78%
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet? Dec 05 $500 +$65 +13%
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 05 $200 +$591 +296%
Will Biden pardon Trump? Dec 05 $1,000 +$5 +0%
Trump declassifies Diddy list? Dec 05 $2,000 −$1,097 -55%
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days? Dec 05 $1,000 +$446 +45%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Dec 05 $1,890 −$124 -6%
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? Dec 05 $2,700 −$96 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? Nov 16 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $1,286 +$755 +59%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $2,115 +$1,410 +67%
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024? Nov 16 $1,000 +$286 +29%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Nov 15 $2,000 +$115 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 30% −$712
other 22% +$1,913
world 18% +$608
sports 16% +$42
crypto 14% −$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 66¢ $21 2m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 49¢ $31 9m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 57¢ $24 12m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 51¢ $87 15m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 29¢ $102 27m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 28¢ $76 44m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 55¢ $165 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 46¢ $138 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 41¢ $258 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 37¢ $160 1h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $103 10h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $103 10h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $103 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 30¢ $511 12h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $103 13h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $103 13h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $1,129 22h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 68¢ $143 22h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 68¢ $50 22h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 64¢ $182 22h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 52¢ $304 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 45¢ $129 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 41¢ $117 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 41¢ $245 24h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 65¢ $61 25h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $101 25h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 79¢ $704 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 42¢ $509 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 10¢ $205 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.4% -8.2% 62% 50% -8.6%
≤30d 8 +1.4% -8.2% 62% 50% -8.6%
≤90d 8 +1.4% -8.2% 62% 50% -8.6%
all 23 +11.6% +0.9% 57% 43% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 43% -0.5%
10% -8.7% 35% -10.0%
15% -17.5% 17% -18.7%
20% -25.6% 13% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $975.77 · official $972.81 (match) · 81 history records