Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5f4…3fdb crypto 385 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$202 (-4%) realized −$216 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%157W / 224L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$113
14 days−$113
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 43% −$299
crypto 36% +$82
other 17% −$44
economics 2% +$83
sports 1% −$31
world 1% −$4
politics 0% +$4
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -48.5% -53.4% 19% 19% -35.5%
≤30d 37 -48.5% -53.4% 19% 19% -35.5%
≤90d 148 -13.2% -21.5% 39% 32% -19.1%
all 381 -13.2% -21.4% 41% 37% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 37% -13.6%
10% -29.0% 34% -21.9%
15% -35.8% 29% -29.4%
20% -42.1% 23% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$216
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses157 / 224
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)381 / 385
History coverage229d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 381 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? Yes 47¢ 78¢ $41 $67 +$27 (+66%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $19 +$28 +145%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 +$4 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $17 +$23 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $43 +$19 +45%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$11 +241%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$27 +366%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 7? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 6? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5? Jun 16 $21 −$19 -90%
Will MrBeast's video get between 72 and 73 million views on day 4? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 5? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 −$12 -71%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 07 $15 −$14 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 6? May 07 $13 +$5 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 6? May 06 $13 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 6? May 06 $80 −$29 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on May 6? May 06 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 6? May 06 $5 +$2 +41%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? May 06 $55 −$14 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 6? May 06 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 05 $64 +$32 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 5? May 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on May 5? May 05 $25 −$4 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 5? May 05 $30 −$6 -20%
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3? May 05 $27 +$12 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? SELL Yes 96¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 16h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 16h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 16h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 6¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 6¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 7¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 10¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 29¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.42 · official $67.42 (match) · 1425 history records