trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -3.1% | -12.3% | 20% | 0% | -11.0% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -2.0% | -11.3% | 29% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 25% | 0% | -10.5% |
| all | 27 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 41% | 4% | -10.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.7% | 4% | -10.1% |
| 10% | -18.4% | 4% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -26.3% | 0% | -26.6% |
| 20% | -33.5% | 0% | -33.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | 82¢ | 81¢ | $39 | $39 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 24 | $4 | $0 | -9% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $48 | −$6 | -12% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 22 | $62 | $0 | -0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 21 | $12 | $0 | -4% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 21 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Jun 20 | $46 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 20 | $63 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 20 | $88 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | -6% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 17 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 27 | $83 | +$2 | +2% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $37 | −$1 | -2% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 26 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 25 | $41 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 24 | $17 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $43 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | May 23 | $2 | $0 | -8% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 23 | $42 | $0 | +1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 22 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 21 | $44 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 24 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 05 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| New Hampshire vs. Binghamton | Mar 04 | $8 | +$3 | +32% |