Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:47:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5f0…96c5 world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$3
other 12% −$2
politics 6% $0
crypto 4% −$1
sports 4% −$1
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.0% -8.6% 60% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 14 -7.2% -16.1% 36% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 14 -7.2% -16.1% 36% 0% -9.0%
all 35 -9.5% -18.1% 37% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -26.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -33.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage460d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $39 +$2 +5%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $35 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $7 −$5 -65%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 15 $0 $0 -50%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 28 $8 $0 +2%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Lab Apr 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 26 $9 $0 -5%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease? Apr 13 $3 −$1 -20%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 08 $9 $0 -2%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 23 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum above $1,900 on March 21? Mar 23 $12 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $34 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $4 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $37 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $12 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $22 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $34 22h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $41 25h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $39 26h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 44h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 8d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $34 8d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $35 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $10 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $10 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $10 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $7 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.68 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records