Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:56:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5ec…d641 crypto 432 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$503 (-3%) realized −$503 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate47%202W / 230L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day37.9pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$100
14 days−$3,625
30 days−$849
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$151
sports 37% −$670
world 6% −$4
weather 2% −$24
politics 1% $0
other 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -30.8% -37.4% 30% 27% -22.9%
≤30d 432 -14.0% -22.2% 47% 35% -14.2%
≤90d 432 -14.0% -22.2% 47% 35% -14.2%
all 432 -14.0% -22.2% 47% 35% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 35% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 33% -22.4%
15% -36.4% 30% -29.9%
20% -42.7% 29% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$25 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$503
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses202 / 230
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)432 / 432
History coverage17d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day37.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 432 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$26 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Will John Wesley Tyler advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 15 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$39 +369%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$19 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$20 +66%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualif Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 10 $16 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$38 +327%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$29 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$11 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 07 $13 +$37 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $30 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $25 +$25 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $22 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 7h
Will John Wesley Tyler advance from the CA-04 primary election? SELL No 100¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $29 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.00 · official $100.00 (match) · 988 history records