Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B5 0xb5ea…46c2 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+24%) realized +$50 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%24W / 8L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$52
other 22% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +24.2% +12.4% 75% 75% +17.4%
≤30d 32 +24.2% +12.4% 75% 75% +17.4%
≤90d 32 +24.2% +12.4% 75% 75% +17.4%
all 32 +24.2% +12.4% 75% 75% +17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.4% 75% +17.4%
10% ← realistic here +1.7% 75% +6.2%
15% -8.2% 72% -4.1%
20% -17.2% 53% -13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses24 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)32 / 40
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 88¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 56¢ 88¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 65¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+53%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 72¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 72¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner Portugal 71¢ 57¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Over 51¢ 35¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4 +$2 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$9 +87%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 49m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner BUY Portugal 71¢ $5 52m
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 52m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $5 53m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 53m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 53m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $5 54m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 55m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $12 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $5 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 14h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $10 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $5 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $5 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.89 · official $61.22 · 66 history records