trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Knicks | 34¢ | 18¢ | $133 | $69 | −$65 (-49%) |
| Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 | Under | 20¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabres vs. Canadiens | May 17 | $76 | +$84 | +110% |
| Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 | May 17 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Canadiens vs. Sabres | May 15 | $183 | +$192 | +105% |
| Dodgers vs. Blue Jays | Apr 29 | $139 | −$139 | -100% |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Apr 29 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | Apr 29 | $116 | −$116 | -100% |
| Dodgers vs. Blue Jays | Apr 29 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly | Apr 29 | $41 | −$41 | -100% |
| UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) | Apr 29 | $399 | −$399 | -100% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Apr 29 | $110 | −$110 | -100% |
| Dodgers vs. Blue Jays | Apr 29 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? | Apr 29 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Over 150,000 bidders in the MegaETH public sale? | Apr 29 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $1 | +$5 | +790% |
| Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? | Feb 09 | $3 | −$2 | -87% |
| Will Gemini run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? | Feb 09 | $1 | −$1 | -65% |
| Blue Jays vs. Dodgers | Oct 30 | $45 | +$79 | +176% |
| Blue Jays vs. Dodgers | Oct 29 | $20 | +$13 | +66% |
| Blue Jays vs. Dodgers | Oct 28 | $66 | −$66 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +5.2% | -4.9% | 50% | 50% | +68.2% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -68.0% | -71.1% | 15% | 15% | -58.6% |
| all | 19 | -5.5% | -14.5% | 26% | 26% | -51.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.5% | 26% | -51.5% |
| 10% | -22.7% | 26% | -56.1% |
| 15% | -30.1% | 26% | -60.4% |
| 20% | -37.0% | 26% | -64.3% |