Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5e8…7583 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%2W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$1
politics 32% $0
sports 14% $0
crypto 9% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses2 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage120d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $108 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $107 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 10 $108 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $108 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 08 $109 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Pendrith win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $110 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $110 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $110 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $110 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $110 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $110 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $110 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $110 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $110 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $108 13h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $108 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $108 10d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $108 22d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $108 23d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $107 25d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $107 31d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $107 32d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $107 37d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $108 38d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $108 40d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $108 41d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $108 47d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 48d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $109 67d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $109 67d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap SELL No 100¢ $109 72d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $38 73d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $55 73d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $16 73d
Will Taylor Pendrith win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $109 79d
Will Taylor Pendrith win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $110 80d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $110 89d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $110 89d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $110 94d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $110 95d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $110 96d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $110 97d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $110 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records