Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5e3…093b crypto 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,334 (-15%) realized −$2,334 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%65W / 78L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$281est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$191
7 days−$337
14 days−$514
30 days−$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$1,920
crypto 19% −$394
other 3% −$259
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -34.0% -40.3% 36% 32% -39.2%
≤30d 56 -24.4% -31.6% 46% 32% -27.1%
≤90d 143 -12.2% -20.6% 45% 35% -24.9%
all 143 -12.2% -20.6% 45% 35% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 35% -24.9%
10% -28.2% 27% -32.1%
15% -35.1% 20% -38.7%
20% -41.5% 17% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$69 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,334
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses65 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$281
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage82d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $101 −$4 -4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $96 −$95 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$10 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $202 +$131 +64%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$9 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $255 −$146 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $61 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 07 $52 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 07 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 07 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 07 $42 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 07 $27 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 07 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 07 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 07 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $122 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 07 $89 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $24 +$13 +52%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $112 −$49 -44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $312 −$5 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $5 $0 -8%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $10 −$1 -13%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $10 +$9 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0. BUY 21¢ $97 49m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 64¢ $97 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $96 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $202 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $24 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $22 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $13 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 32h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 32h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $22 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $12 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $8 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $7 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $94.98 · 596 history records