Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5e2…d8b0 other 45 markets active 19h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-11%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$50
14 days−$87
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$38
politics 20% −$16
weather 14% −$18
sports 9% −$8
world 4% −$1
culture 4% −$1
tech 4% −$3
finance 1% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -14.1% -22.3% 0% 0% -20.6%
≤30d 45 -16.1% -24.1% 0% 0% -21.3%
≤90d 45 -16.1% -24.1% 0% 0% -21.3%
all 45 -16.1% -24.1% 0% 0% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 0% -21.3%
10% -31.3% 0% -28.8%
15% -38.0% 0% -35.7%
20% -44.0% 0% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage13d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? Jun 16 $17 $0 -2%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 16 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -10%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 16 $18 −$4 -25%
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -12%
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $9 $0 -4%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -5%
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 15 $16 −$1 -6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 15 $18 −$1 -5%
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 15 $17 −$1 -5%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $212 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$2 -27%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 15 $12 $0 -2%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Harry Kane score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $27 −$1 -4%
Will Pau Cubarsí score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Folarin Balogun score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -15%
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $1 $0 -68%
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 12 $13 $0 -3%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $156 in June? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -23%
Will Kim Min-jae score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $12 −$11 -87%
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -15%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $15 −$3 -16%
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $13 −$10 -74%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Virgil van Dijk be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $15 $0 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $66 −$4 -7%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica Jun 10 $1 $0 -65%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $12 −$1 -12%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 05 $34 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $25 −$5 -19%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $96 −$5 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 4? Jun 04 $26 −$11 -45%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 4? Jun 04 $24 −$1 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $17 −$1 -3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $8 −$2 -25%
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Jun 03 $20 −$9 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? SELL Yes 78¢ $15 18h
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? BUY Yes 79¢ $16 18h
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 18h
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 18h
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 59¢ $6 23h
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 60¢ $6 23h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 45¢ $14 23h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 45¢ $6 23h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 45¢ $2 23h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 47¢ $2 23h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 47¢ $15 23h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 47¢ $7 23h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 26h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 26h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 26h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor SELL No 56¢ $14 27h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY No 73¢ $18 27h
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 27h
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 27h
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL No 37¢ $9 27h
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY No 37¢ $9 27h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 43h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 43h
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 68¢ $15 45h
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $16 45h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 34¢ $17 45h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 35¢ $18 45h
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL No 79¢ $8 45h
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL No 80¢ $9 45h
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? BUY No 82¢ $8 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records