Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5e1…9105 world 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$2
politics 20% $0
other 16% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.1% -10.5% 43% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 24% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 24% 0% -9.9%
all 51 -0.0% -9.5% 29% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.8%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage269d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $29 −$3 -11%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $57 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $53 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $36 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $29 −$1 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $8 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Oct 05 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $7 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Sep 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 29 $36 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 26 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 25 $4 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Sep 24 $2 $0 +26%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Sep 23 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $26 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $26 6h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $27 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $27 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $26 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $29 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $16 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $13 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $17 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 20¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 20¢ $22 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $28 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $22 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $5 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $16 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $13 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records