Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:31:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B5 0xb5df…f8e1 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%46W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$5
crypto 15% +$2
politics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
sports 1% −$20
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 58 -1.1% -10.5% 79% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses46 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage552d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $85 $85 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? Jun 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $69 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $72 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 04 $58 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 02 $10 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 02 $70 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 03 $45 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 24 $23 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 02 $12 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 02 $15 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 21 $5,118 −$5 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $275 by February 28 2025? Mar 06 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 05 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 05 $17 $0 +1%
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland? Jan 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Julius Randle lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will BSW win the second most seats in the next German election? Jan 25 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $85 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 29d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? BUY No 100¢ $58 31d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $21 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $51 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 91d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $31 93d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $49 93d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 122d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $69 122d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 149d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $26 150d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $44 151d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 182d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $54 183d
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $55 212d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $31 242d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $41 244d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 100¢ $23 274d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $58 274d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus BUY Yes 100¢ $27 302d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $47 303d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $10 333d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $13 334d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $70 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $45 366d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 393d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.42 · official $85.42 (match) · 120 history records