Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B5 0xb5de…cabe sports 28 markets active 3d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,249 (+7%) realized +$1,249 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$605per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$319est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$932
14 days+$745
30 days+$745
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$960
other 8% −$215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -2.3% -11.6% 37% 37% -2.9%
≤30d 28 +16.5% +5.4% 43% 39% -5.5%
≤90d 28 +16.5% +5.4% 43% 39% -5.5%
all 28 +16.5% +5.4% 43% 39% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.4% 39% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -4.7% 39% -14.6%
15% -13.9% 39% -22.8%
20% -22.4% 36% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$742) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$604 vs −$407 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,249
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$319
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage7d
Avg bet$605
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $164 −$155 -95%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $551 +$608 +110%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $293 −$37 -12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $154 −$154 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $536 +$1,007 +188%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $742 +$601 +81%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $252 −$20 -8%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 14 $205 −$205 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $914 −$914 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $484 +$432 +89%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $3,156 −$226 -7%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 13 $564 +$1,370 +243%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $1,447 +$1,347 +93%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 13 $84 −$84 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $521 −$521 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 13 $651 −$651 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,497 −$1,497 -100%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? Jun 11 $297 +$223 +75%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $123 −$123 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $205 −$205 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $211 +$385 +183%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 07 $705 +$261 +37%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $1,112 +$64 +6%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $256 −$255 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $215 +$200 +93%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 07 $1,266 −$1,266 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $129 +$754 +585%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran SELL Yes $8 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $196 2d
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 20¢ $164 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $1,159 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 42¢ $257 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 50¢ $257 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 50¢ $294 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 55¢ $293 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $1,543 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 34¢ $205 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 33¢ $331 2d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) SELL T1 100¢ $1,344 2d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 65¢ $232 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports 31¢ $232 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $252 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 $52 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $102 3d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 50¢ $510 3d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 99¢ $916 3d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $484 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 47¢ $484 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 44¢ $487 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 48¢ $510 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 45¢ $298 3d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) SELL Team WE 99¢ $1,934 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 13¢ $129 3d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) BUY Team WE 42¢ $307 3d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) SELL Team WE 99¢ $2,794 3d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Team WE 50¢ $1,447 4d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) BUY Team WE 20¢ $257 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records