Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:11:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B5 0xb5db…5800 sports 218 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26,442 (-2%) realized −$26,434 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate79%169W / 45L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,726per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$4,337est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13,704
7 days−$32,746
14 days−$42,395
30 days−$46,819
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$2,791
other 19% −$33,735
crypto 0% −$22
world 0% +$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +1.5% -8.2% 77% 57% -14.7%
≤30d 119 -4.0% -13.1% 76% 51% -13.9%
≤90d 207 -1.9% -11.2% 79% 45% -11.8%
all 214 -1.4% -10.8% 79% 46% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 46% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 23% -20.2%
15% -27.1% 12% -27.9%
20% -34.2% 7% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$5,892) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$548 vs −$2,743 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$342
Realized−$26,434
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses169 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$4,337
Open positions2
Markets (closed)214 / 218
History coverage117d
Avg bet$5,726
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Golden State Valkyries 40¢ 40¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Washington Mystics 14¢ 14¢ $150 $145 −$5 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $5,028 +$1,046 +21%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $14,117 +$1,631 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12,054 +$1,560 +13%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $507 +$436 +86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 20 $204 +$83 +41%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $12,144 +$192 +2%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $61,702 +$7,292 +12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,512 +$448 +18%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $5,517 +$593 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $103 +$81 +79%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $1,208 +$342 +28%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $61,719 +$1,908 +3%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti Jun 19 $5,019 +$628 +12%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $14,612 −$534 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,513 +$499 +20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $4,036 +$415 +10%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $30,109 +$3,985 +13%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5,028 −$3,975 -79%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $60,207 +$1,612 +3%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $25,096 +$3,549 +14%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $44,406 +$1,593 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,510 +$438 +29%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $103 −$93 -90%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $43,136 +$4,879 +11%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $9,017 +$583 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21,077 +$2,498 +12%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,015 −$801 -79%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $23,140 −$23,000 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $65,190 −$41,496 -64%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $5,532 −$362 -7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30,032 +$1,058 +4%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 15 $359 −$359 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $255 +$256 +100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $255 +$52 +20%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $255 +$217 +85%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12,030 +$804 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $50,085 +$2,879 +6%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $12,110 −$9,961 -82%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $19,949 −$7,192 -36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,263 +$509 +22%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $3,379 +$414 +12%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $2,013 +$517 +26%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 13 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $2,012 +$501 +25%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $12,846 +$1,994 +16%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $1,008 −$1,000 -99%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $2,012 +$437 +22%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $4,013 +$440 +11%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $2,011 +$434 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Golden State Valkyries 40¢ $204 20m
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Washington Mystics 14¢ $154 20m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 99¢ $6,074 31m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 81¢ $5,028 46m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 100¢ $13,441 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 71¢ $5,043 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL India 39¢ $2,285 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 78¢ $5,033 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL India 25¢ $21 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 72¢ $1,513 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 63¢ $2,527 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $13,614 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $12,054 13h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 53¢ $507 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 38¢ $611 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN SELL 50¢ $287 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 98¢ $5,245 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 94¢ $2,004 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 93¢ $3,006 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Pakistan 55¢ $169 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Pakistan 60¢ $1,670 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 64¢ $2,022 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Pakistan 79¢ $5,251 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 86¢ $2,511 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 64¢ $505 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 69¢ $2,096 26h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $68,994 26h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $28,088 34h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $14,051 34h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $3,511 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.14 · official $342.14 (match) · 598 history records