Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5d8…504b world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 337d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%5W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
other 18% $0
culture 10% $0
finance 10% $0
politics 7% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -9.4%
all 29 -0.7% -10.2% 17% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

337d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses5 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage337d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $34 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $37 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Oct 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 01 $19 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 29 $1 $0 -4%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 29 $2 $0 -1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 29 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Aug 20 $2 $0 -7%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 10 $2 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $15 14h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $12 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $25 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $37 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $14 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $14 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 182d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? SELL No 95¢ $1 260d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 260d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $8 260d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.28 · official $37.30 (match) · 102 history records