Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5d8…9dd0 weather 409 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$410 (-7%) realized −$408 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%102W / 296L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$76
14 days−$152
30 days−$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$520
sports 6% +$74
crypto 3% −$37
other 0% −$18
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -29.0% -35.8% 19% 17% -44.3%
≤30d 194 -20.5% -28.0% 24% 23% -30.7%
≤90d 391 -19.4% -27.1% 25% 25% -20.5%
all 398 -17.8% -25.6% 26% 25% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 25% -18.0%
10% -32.7% 24% -25.8%
15% -39.2% 23% -33.0%
20% -45.2% 21% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$11 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$408
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses102 / 296
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)398 / 409
History coverage100d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? Yes 11¢ 36¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+232%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +203%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$8 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +84%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$3 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$12 +582%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 18m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY 10¢ $5 23m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 28m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 12h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY 38¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Czech BUY 2¢ $2 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $15 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 19h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY 2¢ $1 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $9 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.56 · official $6.52 · 1738 history records