Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B5 0xb5d7…c744 world 18 markets active 1d ago coverage 482d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+4%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +106% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +86% what you keep after slip
Net edge+86%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$2
other 11% +$18
crypto 2% +$1
weather 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+86.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 22% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 10 -10.3% -18.8% 20% 0% -9.1%
all 18 +106.0% +86.4% 39% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +86.4% 6% -8.7%
10% +68.5% 6% -17.5%
15% +52.3% 6% -25.4%
20% +37.3% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +106% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +212% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.27 per $1 lost it wins $5.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage482d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $84 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $80 −$4 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $72 +$5 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 26 $15 +$1 +3%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? May 22 $16 $0 -2%
Will another candidate win? May 22 $0 +$18 +33233%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 20? Mar 03 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $47 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $32 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $12 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $38 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $28 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 51¢ $22 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $18 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $18 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $36 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records