Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5cd…6055 other 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$54 (+2%) realized +$59 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate36%22W / 39L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$522now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$50
14 days+$49
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$60
world 2% −$4
politics 0% −$6
sports 0% $0
weather 0% −$5
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -25.8% -32.8% 37% 19% -7.2%
≤30d 61 -24.6% -31.7% 36% 18% -7.3%
≤90d 61 -24.6% -31.7% 36% 18% -7.3%
all 61 -24.6% -31.7% 36% 18% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.7% 18% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -38.3% 10% -16.1%
15% -44.2% 10% -24.2%
20% -49.7% 7% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$522
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses22 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)61 / 78
History coverage8d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $148 $149 +$1 (+1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 66¢ $64 $59 −$5 (-8%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 82¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 40¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+41%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 82¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 28 $2 $0 -8%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? Jun 28 $5 $0 -5%
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $232 −$13 -6%
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $50 +$3 +6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $365 +$20 +6%
Will Argentina go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 28 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $61 −$4 -6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $52 +$37 +70%
Will England go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 28 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $25 −$2 -7%
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $100 −$5 -5%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 26 $1 +$4 +397%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $384 +$56 +14%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 26 $1 $0 -26%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 26 $2 $0 +10%
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $5 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $60 +$12 +21%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $97 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $37 +$14 +39%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $11 −$7 -59%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 7m
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 8m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 8m
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc BUY Yes 0¢ $5 11m
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 20m
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc BUY Yes 0¢ $5 50m
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $49 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $49 1h
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 88¢ $27 13h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $50 17h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $50 17h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $50 18h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $41 18h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $100 18h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $30 18h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $100 18h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $50 18h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $107 18h
Will Argentina go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 99¢ $105 18h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 81¢ $51 18h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 88¢ $27 18h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $24 18h
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 18h
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 19h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $521.50 · official $521.70 (match) · 196 history records