Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B5 0xb5c9…7244 crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-1%) realized −$51 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%30W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$39
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$5
other 47% −$63
finance 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.9% -15.8% 50% 0% -16.3%
≤30d 5 -2.6% -11.9% 80% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 32 -0.5% -10.0% 94% 0% -10.1%
all 32 -0.5% -10.0% 94% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$40 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses30 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage77d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? No 100¢ 99¢ $245 $243 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $245 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $284 −$40 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $283 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $281 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $281 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $280 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $280 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $279 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $277 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $273 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $271 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $270 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 14 $270 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $267 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 10? May 11 $267 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $267 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 08 $267 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $267 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? May 05 $266 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $266 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 03 $266 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $266 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $309 −$41 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $308 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $308 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $308 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $307 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $306 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 16? Apr 18 $305 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $305 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 15 $156 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $144 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $245 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $245 24h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $244 4d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $284 5d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $283 9d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $281 12d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $281 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $280 38d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $280 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $279 40d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $277 41d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $273 42d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $271 44d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $270 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $270 46d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $267 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $267 50d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $267 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $267 53d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $267 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $266 55d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 56d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 56d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $77 56d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $150 56d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 56d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $266 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $266 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $266 60d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $268 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.44 · official $243.44 (match) · 69 history records