Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5c7…5864 sports 93 markets active 5d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$136 (-4%) realized −$136 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%39W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$133
14 days−$335
30 days−$261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$188
other 16% −$28
crypto 3% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -25.0% -32.1% 40% 35% -19.5%
≤30d 93 -16.6% -24.6% 42% 40% -16.2%
≤90d 93 -16.6% -24.6% 42% 40% -16.2%
all 93 -16.6% -24.6% 42% 40% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 40% -16.2%
10% -31.8% 40% -24.2%
15% -38.4% 35% -31.5%
20% -44.4% 29% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$28 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses39 / 54
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 93
History coverage10d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 93 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4 $0 +8%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $56 +$75 +133%
Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals Jun 11 $17 −$17 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $51 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $46 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $102 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $21 +$15 +68%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $76 −$75 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $18 +$10 +52%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $17 −$17 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $18 +$14 +78%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 +$38 +74%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $25 +$18 +71%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $71 −$20 -28%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $29 −$29 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $14 −$1 -5%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $51 +$27 +53%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID - Game 3 Winne Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Costa Rica: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $36 +$23 +65%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $40 +$4 +10%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $35 +$12 +33%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $61 −$5 -9%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $34 +$45 +133%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $20 −$16 -77%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $31 −$24 -78%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $7 −$7 -99%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $25 +$32 +126%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $15 +$17 +114%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $56 −$5 -9%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $50 +$18 +36%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $50 +$19 +38%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 +$32 +106%
Will Liberia vs. Sierra Leone end in a draw? Jun 09 $30 −$28 -93%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -93%
Will Togo vs. Benin end in a draw? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Latvia vs. Slovakia end in a draw? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $20 +$41 +203%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $25 +$13 +50%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $26 −$26 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $114 −$112 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $143 −$125 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 95¢ $131 5d
Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $17 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Mexico leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $25 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $46 5d
Mexico leading at halftime? SELL Yes 44¢ $47 5d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $56 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $76 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $97 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $36 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $21 5d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 44¢ $76 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY RUSTEC 60¢ $30 5d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 99¢ $28 5d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 64¢ $18 5d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $17 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $32 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $88 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL PARIVISION 99¢ $43 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 25¢ $32 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 37¢ $12 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 49¢ $14 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $14 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $25 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 184 history records