Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B5 0xb5c2…c05e crypto 1014 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (249 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$946 (+16%) realized +$946 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%331W / 1012L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day249.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$536
7 days−$363
14 days−$246
30 days−$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$232
other 0% $0
sports 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (249 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 566 -58.0% -62.0% 12% 12% -17.3%
≤30d 1343 -23.5% -30.8% 25% 22% -12.1%
≤90d 1343 -23.5% -30.8% 25% 22% -12.1%
all 1343 -23.5% -30.8% 25% 22% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover249.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.8% 22% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -37.4% 20% -20.5%
15% -43.5% 18% -28.2%
20% -49.0% 15% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$946
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses331 / 1012
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1343 / 1014
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day249.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 66¢ 63¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$2 -166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$2 -154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$2 -180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$3 -303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$2 -172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$2 -153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$2 -154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$3 -128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$2 -163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$2 -153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$2 -156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$3 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 5h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $14 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $19 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $29 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $27 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.55 · official $9.55 (match) · 3500 history records