Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B5 0xb5c2…1750 crypto 375 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 176d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25,918 (-28%) realized −$25,746 · open −$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%100W / 384L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,821
7 days−$9,891
14 days−$10,964
30 days−$14,423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$23,551
other 12% +$3,486
weather 0% −$24
world 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -55.2% -59.4% 5% 5% -95.7%
≤30d 199 -53.8% -58.2% 11% 10% -46.0%
≤90d 287 -47.4% -52.4% 14% 14% -44.5%
all 484 -27.5% -34.4% 21% 19% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 19% -36.4%
10% -40.7% 15% -42.5%
15% -46.4% 12% -48.1%
20% -51.7% 10% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$354 vs −$167 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$25,746
Unrealized−$172
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses100 / 384
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)484 / 375
History coverage176d ⚠
Avg bet$250
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 484 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $285 $108 −$177 (-62%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? No 0¢ 0¢ $43 $48 +$5 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 349 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Jun 28 $59 −$53 -89%
Will Doug Polk win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? Jun 28 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 28 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025 Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Jun 28 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Elon tweet 265–279 times August 29–September 5? Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Jun 28 $25 −$59 -237%
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Saturday? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Jun 28 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Jun 28 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 28 $407 −$407 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Jun 28 $25 −$57 -229%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Jun 28 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Jun 28 $0 +$173 +498907%
Will Trump say "India" or "Pakistan" during the Armenian PM bilateral Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Jun 28 $33 −$64 -191%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? Jun 28 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 20 Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Jun 28 $0 +$243 +284347%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35 million views on day 1? Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 24? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon tweet 370–384 times August 29–September 5? Jun 28 $88 −$88 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 28 $347 −$347 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 30? Jun 28 $356 −$356 -100%
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Jun 28 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Elon tweet between 1000 and 1049 times September 1–30? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 20 Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Jun 28 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Jun 28 $206 −$71 -34%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times August 8–August 15? Jun 28 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Jun 28 $828 −$828 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 28 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 11PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Jun 28 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Medicaid" during his West Virginia speech on Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Jun 28 $25 −$59 -236%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY No 0¢ $46 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $228 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $99 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $53 4d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $14 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 7¢ $81 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 6¢ $28 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $118 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $56 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $38 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $22 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $122 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $53 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 33¢ $121 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 30¢ $159 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $17 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.60 · official $156.60 (match) · 3500 history records