Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:29:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B5 0xb5c0…58b1 other 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$20
politics 31% −$14
sports 10% −$7
economics 5% −$2
crypto 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 91 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 138 +0.0% -9.5% 9% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 4% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 4% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)138 / 140
History coverage135d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $284 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 29 $181 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $270 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $182 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $189 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $240 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $217 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $215 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $187 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $217 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $238 $0 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $210 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $272 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $197 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $258 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $194 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $189 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $190 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $211 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $220 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $435 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $196 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $708 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $270 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $211 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $262 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $264 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $390 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $251 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $494 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $483 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $217 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $252 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $252 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $276 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $205 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $225 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $272 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $199 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $465 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 3d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 10d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 14d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 16d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 20d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $181 25d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $181 33d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $270 34d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $270 38d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $210 38d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $210 48d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $182 48d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $182 49d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 49d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 50d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $240 50d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $240 50d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $217 50d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $217 50d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 51d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 51d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $187 51d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $187 52d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 52d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 52d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 53d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $238 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.98 · official $74.98 (match) · 423 history records