Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5bd…7e75 other 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 351d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,995 (-10%) realized −$5,994 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate39%58W / 90L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$370per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$558now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$100
14 days−$100
30 days−$1,726
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$4,673
world 26% −$364
politics 15% +$2,450
crypto 14% −$2,317
economics 10% −$375
tech 4% −$23
sports 1% −$716
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -84.6% -86.1% 0% 0% -71.6%
≤90d 17 -42.5% -48.0% 41% 29% -40.3%
all 148 -26.6% -33.6% 39% 24% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 24% -17.6%
10% -39.9% 15% -25.5%
15% -45.7% 14% -32.7%
20% -51.0% 10% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$162 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

351d coverage
Net worth$558
Realized−$5,994
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses58 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)148 / 161
History coverage351d
Avg bet$370
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-32 House seat? Yes 16¢ 27¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+69%)
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Yes 10¢ 48¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+379%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $1,028 −$238 -23%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $1,335 −$1,329 -100%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House May 15 $100 +$56 +56%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 15 $394 +$64 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 06 $257 −$257 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 02 $408 +$191 +47%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 02 $744 +$450 +60%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $996 +$11 +1%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? Apr 13 $160 +$31 +20%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 29 $1,987 −$1,444 -73%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 26 $616 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the Monad public sale commitments be less than $400M? Mar 18 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? Mar 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31? Mar 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Mar 13 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 07 $540 −$255 -47%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Mar 06 $510 −$20 -4%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Mar 05 $42 −$9 -20%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 05 $25 −$25 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $5,220 +$2,327 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 28 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $101 −$101 -100%
Flying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 26 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $403 +$813 +202%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Feb 26 $40 −$18 -45%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Feb 26 $234 +$41 +17%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 20 $54 +$88 +163%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 20 $452 −$18 -4%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 31 $40 +$100 +250%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 30 $30 −$26 -86%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 30 $20 −$16 -80%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 30 $60 −$60 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $200 +$22 +11%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Lighter FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 02 $434 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $170 −$3 -2%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 30 $232 +$50 +22%
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Dec 30 $40 −$35 -88%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $40 +$17 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $43 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 13¢ $790 26d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 28d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 28d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 28d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 28d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 28d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 32d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 32d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 32d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 90¢ $619 35d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 21¢ $156 35d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL No 56¢ $458 35d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 93¢ $602 35d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 38d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 38d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 13¢ $78 39d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 20¢ $89 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $557.75 · official $557.75 (match) · 817 history records